Omnigence Publishes New Research on Real Interest Rates and Canadian Farmland Returns

Study tracks Canadian farmland appreciation across real-rate regimes (1970–2025) and compares Veripath’s gross unlevered returns with the national market.

CALGARY, AB, CANADA, November 11, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — Omnigence Asset Management (“Omnigence”) published new research examining how Canadian farmland returns have behaved across different long-term real interest rate environments. The paper, Real Rates and Canadian Farmland Returns: The Market versus Veripath Across Rate Regimes, reviews national farmland data from 1970 to 2025 and considers where the Veripath strategy’s track record sits within that framework.

The paper notes that farmland is often viewed as an asset whose value keeps pace with inflation, but suggests its link to long-term real interest rates may be more important. The real rate is the yield on long-term government bonds after accounting for inflation. It reflects the inflation-adjusted return available from those bonds. When it is high, farmland competes for capital against a meaningful risk-free return.

Grouping the 56 years into three regimes, the analysis finds that average annual farmland appreciation stepped down as real rates rose: 15.2% when real rates were negative, 9.7% between 0% and 4%, and 1.2% at 4% or above. Every negative year for farmland prices in the sample occurred at positive real rates, and the six material drawdowns, concentrated between 1983 and 1992, all occurred in the highest-rate regime.

A further section compares the Veripath strategy’s gross unlevered total returns with the national market from 2008 to 2025, a period in which real rates ranged from negative 4.0% to positive 3.1%. The paper finds the strategy’s margin over the market was widest when real rates sat between 0% and 4%, which it attributes to asset selection and a focus on acquiring land at discounts to average productivity-adjusted prices. Real rates are currently around 1%, within that middle range, and the paper notes the 4% plus regime has not been observed since 1999.

“Farmland is often discussed as an inflation hedge, but the long-run data suggests real interest rates have been a more useful guide to how the asset class performs,” said Stephen Johnston, a director of Omnigence and lead author of the paper. “This research is intended to help allocators consider how the rate environment can shape farmland returns, and where asset selection can add to them.”

The paper is available on request from Omnigence Asset Management.

About Veripath
Veripath is a partner fund of Omnigence Asset Management, a $1.2 billion alternative investment platform. Veripath invests in Canadian farmland and manages a portfolio of more than 140,000 acres of row-crop farmland across Canada. Its investment strategy is focused on farmland’s potential to provide long-term value, portfolio diversification, inflation protection and exposure to growing global demand for food, feed, fuel and water.

About Omnigence
Omnigence is a Canadian alternative investment platform focused on farmland, operational private equity, and secondaries with partner funds managing over $1.2 billion. The firm targets fragmented, unfinancialized investment theses where scale, operational complexity, or size constraints limit participation from larger participants and therefore value is more compelling.

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Matt Barr
Omnigence Asset Management
+1 587-393-0893
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